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Risk-based whole life cost analysis for Crossrail (UK) to support design options selection

London, United Kingdom

Partners

  • EC Harris (acquired by Arcadis)
  • Scott Wilson (acquired by URS)
  • Crossrail

Services

  • Tender preparation
  • Whole life cost modelling
  • Total cost of ownership
  • Asset performance and optimisation
  • Advanced risk analytics

Challenge

Crossrail's on-network works involved upgrades to numerous existing stations along the Elizabeth line. Each station presented multiple design options with different capital costs, maintenance profiles, and operational implications. The programme needed a consistent, risk-informed approach to evaluate and compare these options.

Solution

Floreer developed a whole life cost model that incorporated probabilistic risk analysis for each design option. The model captured capital expenditure, operational costs, maintenance regimes, renewal cycles, and disposal costs over the asset lifecycle. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the key cost drivers and risk factors for each option.

Outcome

The analysis provided Crossrail with a transparent, auditable basis for selecting design options that delivered the best whole life value. Several design decisions were revised based on the findings, resulting in significant long-term cost savings without compromising operational performance.